Kong Wen wrote:
I think the slant of Jordan's point is less about selling more Switches, and more about forcing 3DS players to have to move on to Switch because there's nothing left for them to do on 3DS.
As a Switch owner I'd rather they did that, but I don't know how great it would be to drop support for both 3DS and Wii U at the same time in support of Switch. Again I think the price point differentiates the markets. I don't think it's all or nothing, like in the case of Smash Bros. Releasing just on Wii U may have sold a few million more units, but at that point Wii U was too far gone. Mario Kart which released earlier that year didn't even move Wii U as much as the same game is moving Switch's now.
The Shoemaker wrote:and or releases a Switch Mini version to finally push 3ds owners towards Switch.
Kong Wen wrote:I hope you mean in like 4-5 years. Releasing a brand new Switch SKU before that would be insane.
I'd say 2-3 years, similar to the PS4 Slim, DS lite, 3DS XL
The Shoemaker wrote:By it's first holiday season, it will have Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart, Mario Rabbids, FE Warriors, Splatoon 2, ARMS among others to it's name, compared to if it launched this holiday with Zelda and maybe another big title.
Kong Wen wrote:
XCOM: Rabbids Edition is a niche 3rd-party title, and as much as I love it, Dynasty Warriors isn't a big linchpin title, it's a filler game. Hell, the fact that filler Omega Force brawlers are considered big entries in the lineup says something. ARMS could end up being good, but it's a new, untested IP.
(Note: I still think the real core of Mario, Zelda, and Mario Kart is a strong lineup going into the holidays, but let's not overstate things here by "padding the stats.")
I mean, Mario and Rabbids is still another box they have on the shelf with Mario on it. All I'm saying is, it will be interesting to see how Switch's first holiday goes with all of these titles out and the hardcore fanbase out of the way, compared to the usual first holiday where the hardcore fanbase sells out the system and it launches with a couple first party IP's. Oh and Pokken Tournament, which is another port, but still another box on the shelf with Pikachu on it.
The Shoemaker wrote:And by then they will surely have their OS updated with basic features ready to go. If they don't, then they've messed up big time.
Kong Wen wrote:
They've already pushed back the launch of core online functionality to 2018.
You think that includes features like Netflix and an Internet browser?
Kong Wen wrote:
They might not normally be system-sellers, but this early in a new console's life, with this weak a launch lineup, they become system-sellers. They'd certainly sell the system to people who want to get in on the Switch and enjoy Zelda or Mario Kart but if only it had one or two more games. If only. Plus, Metroid II? First "new" 2D Metroid in a long time? Even if that were a downloadable title only, it'd still help move consoles.
I think they may as well have put these games on Switch, but I also think they make sense as low cost 3DS games that keep that audience going, the people who wouldn't be ready to jump on Switch regardless. In the case of Fire Emblem, Valentia was made specifically to be the last 3DS Fire Emblem before Switch and was actually supposed to release last year, but was delayed. I kind of think Metroid is the same thing where it was supposed to have released earlier and that's why it's not on Switch, since it's been in development for 2 years already, well before they would have given MercurySteam a Switch dev kit.
I hope the Switch will take over 3DS as a handheld, and the signs are there with Fire Emblem and Pokémon, but I don't think Nintendo is ready to push it as that. I don't really know what the better approach is. I mean clearly they weren't expecting this level of success, so I wonder if they were just too afraid to put all their eggs in one basket especially after the Wii U, and after 3DS just had one of its most successful years.
Overall, I'm not concerned with how the Switch will preform this year. I think 3DS will slow down even more next year and we'll see Switch pick up even more.
